Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Common Motors to try to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one might attribute to foreign competition versus automation and productiveness will increase. Various commenters objected that my assumptions were too simplistic, notably in neglecting the home content in overseas autos and the importance of shifts within the provide chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise much more is the truth that individuals are inclined to preserve their automobiles longer nowadays than they used to. That is in large part as a result of high quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to purchase a brand new automotive. I believe this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other factors you mentioned.
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